Sunday, April 25, 2010

Way-Too-Early World Cup Predictions

Only 46 days until the World Cup kicks-off in South Africa (according to my new counter), so why not take a stab at picking which teams will advance from the group stage of the tournament? These predictions may be lousy but should prove to be a good point to start a heated debate. Feel free to comment.

Without further adieu, these are the countries I think will advance into the Round of 16 this summer.

GROUP A

South Africa
Mexico
Uruguay
France

On the surface, this looks like a relatively easy group to pick: you have traditional heavyweights France along with a dangerous Mexican side that finished first in its qualifying region. But peel away the layers and some interesting storylines take shape. First, no host country has ever failed to advance out of its group in World Cup history. Ever. Secondly, South Africa is arguably the weakest national team to host the tournament. Third, the France national team wouldn't have qualified it if wasn't for a Thierry Henry handball.

So after all that, what do you have left? Something tells me that the South Africans will have what it takes to surprise many observers and get it done, vuvuzelas and all. I also like Mexico to progress due to the many shortcomings of a faulty France squad and an inexperienced Uruguay side. My Prediction: South Africa, Mexico

GROUP B

Argentina
Korea Republic
Nigeria
Greece

This may be the toughest group to predict, as no one team stands out amongst the rest. Performance-wise, Argentina have fallen short of their elite history under the tumultuous reign of manager Diego Maradona. The Argentinians scraped by with one goal on the last day of qualifying to progress to South Africa. Nigeria has not been playing its best soccer of late, while Greece won a UEFA playoff match against Ukraine to punch its ticket. Only Korea looked dominant during qualifying rounds, going undefeated throughout.

Despite the struggles under Maradona, Argentina still have Lionel Messi. How can you bet against him right now? And I'll take the disciplined Korea Republic side in a close second to Nigeria. My Prediction: Argentina, Korea Republic

GROUP C

England
United States
Algeria
Slovenia

Oy mate, the Americans are coming! Already nervous at the prospect of facing their former colony, England fans are holding their breath as the health of star striker Wayne Rooney has been thrown into question. No doubt manager Fabio Capello is losing sleep over this already. But the United States has its own injury issues which threaten to take the teeth out of its lineup. Midfielder Clint Dempsey seems to be doing fine after knee problems but defender Oguchi Onyewu still has rehabilitation remaining for his knee. Throw in the idea of striker Charlie Davies being declared out for South Africa and suddenly England gets less nervous. But when healthy, this American squad can beat anyone (as evidenced by their work in last summer's Confederations Cup).

You know just whom I like to advance. My Prediction: England, United States

GROUP D

Germany
Australia
Serbia
Ghana

With their size and disciplined play, the Germans are almost always a lock to advance. Count them in. But as for the other three? You have a plucky Australian side that advanced past the group stages back in 2006 (albeit under mastermind tactician Guus Hiddink), a Serbian national team that boasts one of the game's best defenses with Nemanja Vidic and Branislav Ivanovic and Ghana who possess some of the best young talent in the world.

Yet this time around the Australians will be missing Hiddink, and Ghana may be without midfield dynamo Michael Essien. For the time being, let's pencil in Serbia as the second team to advance. My Prediction: Germany, Serbia

GROUP E

Netherlands
Denmark
Japan
Cameroon

The Netherlands seem to always underachieve when it comes to the big stage. Just take a look at their defeat versus Russia in Euro 2008. However, I cannot pick against the Oranje just yet after their impressive qualifying campaign.

I also like Denmark to advance as well. Cameroon just do not have depth in their squad right now and Japan is just not strong enough in my book. My Prediction: Netherlands, Denmark

GROUP F

Italy
Paraguay
New Zealand
Slovakia

The defending Wold Cup trophy-holders, Italy have a squad that blends experience (midfielder Andrea Pirlo) with excitement (forward Giuseppe Rossi). Add in the weak group the Italians were placed in and it makes them a virtual lock to advance. Paraguay also have an underrated national team, and hope that their star forward Salvador Cabanas will be fit in time for the World Cup. Cabanas is recovering from a life-threatening incident that saw him get shot in the head outside a bar in Mexico City. My Prediction: Italy, Paraguay

GROUP G

Brazil
Ivory Coast
Korea DPR
Portugal

This year's "Group of Death" is sure to make fans of each respective national team groan. For the Ivory Coast, just when their team is coming together and is finally talented enough to make a run in the tournament, they are drawn into a murderer's row of opponents. When Brazil and Portugal finally meet-up, their match will be between not only two heavyweights of international soccer, but two countries with colonial ties to each other as well. It should be a heated contest. And for Korea DPR, who knows? They are a national team which the world has paid little attention to. This group is going to be tough to call. My Prediction: Brazil, Ivory Coast

GROUP H

Spain
Switzerland
Honduras
Chile

If there was a favorite to win this tournament, Spain would be it. The winners of Euro 2008, the national team's only hiccup since then was losing to the United States in last summer's Confederations Cup. With enough attacking players to make an opposing manager's worst nightmares come true, the Spanish should have no problem making the Round of 16. Besides Spain, Chile have qualified for the first time since France '98. I don't think they are just happy to be here; with young talent like forward Alexis Sanchez and defender Arturo Vidal they know advancing is well-within their reach. I like their "wow" factor more than I do for Honduras or Switzerland. My Prediction: Spain, Chile

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